COP31 Tracker, Expert workbench
| ISSUE | LATEST OFFICIAL TEXT | UPDATED (TRT) | BRACKETS BY VERSION | OPTIONS | OPERATIVE VERB vs BELÉM | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Money for poorer countries Climate finance (Paris Agreement, Article 9) | No draft yet | — | — | — | — | No draft yet |
Coping with impacts Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) | No draft yet | — | — | — | — | No draft yet |
Cutting emissions Mitigation and national plans (NDCs) | No draft yet | — | — | — | — | No draft yet |
Fairness for workers and communities Just transition mechanism | No draft yet | — | — | — | — | No draft yet |
Getting off coal, oil and gas Roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels | No draft yet | — | — | — | — | No draft yet |
The electrification pledge Action Agenda: 35% electrification by 2035 | No draft yet | — | — | — | — | Voluntary |
Texts & diffs
Paragraph-level · official documents only| METRIC | CENTRAL | RANGE | DEFINITION | SOURCE · VINTAGE | CHECK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warming by 2100 if policies stay as they are | Could reach 2.8°C | — | UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026, via the PBL summary: if current policies continue, warming could reach 2.8°C within this century and increase thereafter. Source gives a 'could reach' figure; plotted at 2.8. | Emissions Gap Report 2026 Antalya 2026 · 2026-10-21 | verified |
| Warming by 2100 if every national pledge is kept | 2.6°C | — | UNEP, Oct 2026. Point estimate; no range recorded, so low and high equal the value. | Emissions Gap Report 2026 Antalya 2026 · 2026-10-21 | verified |
| Measured global temperature | 1.55°C, likely the first calendar year above 1.5°C | — | WMO, 2024 consolidated from six international datasets. WMO says 2024 is likely the first calendar year above 1.5°C relative to 1850-1900. | WMO confirms 2024 as warmest year on record at about 1.55°C above pre-industrial level Belém 2025 | verified |
| The 1.5°C goal | Overshoot can no longer be avoided. Best case peaks at 1.7–1.8°C | — | UNEP, Oct 2026. | Emissions Gap Report 2026 Antalya 2026 · 2026-10-21 | verified |
| Emissions cuts by 2035: promised against needed | Promised 11–15%. Needed 45% | — | UNEP, Oct 2026. Against 2025 emissions. | Emissions Gap Report 2026 Antalya 2026 · 2026-10-21 | verified |
| Money promised to developing countries | Decided in the finance track | — | Outcome pending in the finance track. | COP 31 session page: agendas, drafts, decisions Antalya 2026 | cited |
| Fossil fuels named in the agreed text | Brazil’s roadmap due to be presented here | — | Not yet presented. | COP 31 session page: agendas, drafts, decisions Antalya 2026 | cited |
| Clean energy build-out | Renewables 3× faster than expected. Solar 7× | — | UNEP, Oct 2026. | Emissions Gap Report 2026 Antalya 2026 · 2026-10-21 | cited |
| Who is at the table | No official US delegation | — | Opening day report. | COP31 opening day Antalya 2026 | cited |
| Emissions cuts by 2035: promised | 11–15% | 11–15 % vs 2025 emissions | UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026, via the PBL summary: full NDC implementation amounts to 11-15 percent by 2035 relative to 2025 levels. The source gives only the range; 13 is the midpoint, used for sorting only. | Emissions Gap Report 2026 Antalya 2026 · 2026-10-21 | verified |
| Emissions cuts by 2035: needed | 45% | — | Point estimate; no range recorded, so low and high equal the value. | Emissions Gap Report 2026 Antalya 2026 · 2026-10-21 | verified |
| Climate finance: previous goal | $100bn | — | WRI: the previous climate finance goal of $100 billion annually, which the NCQG replaces. The page does not say when the goal was set, so the Paris 2015 placement is cited, not verified. | NCQG Deep Dive: How We Reach $300 Billion and $1.3 Trillion Paris 2015 | verified once |
| Climate finance: goal for 2035 | $300bn | — | UNCTAD: developed countries to take the lead in mobilizing at least $300 billion per year for developing countries, by 2035. | Countries agree $300 billion by 2035 for new climate finance goal – what next? Belém 2025 | verified |
| Renewables growth against 2015 expectations | 3× | — | Point estimate; no range recorded, so low and high equal the value. | Emissions Gap Report 2026 Antalya 2026 · 2026-10-21 | verified |
| Solar build-out against 2015 expectations | 7× | — | Point estimate; no range recorded, so low and high equal the value. | Emissions Gap Report 2026 Antalya 2026 · 2026-10-21 | verified |
| Leaders’ Summit money: announced | pending | — | Pending: Leaders’ Summit announcements from 11 Nov. Expected sources: UN News, Carbon Brief, presidency statements. | Not announced yet Antalya 2026 | awaiting data |
| Leaders’ Summit money: new grants | pending | — | Pending: Leaders’ Summit announcements from 11 Nov. Expected sources: UN News, Carbon Brief, presidency statements. | Not announced yet Antalya 2026 | awaiting data |
| Leaders’ Summit money: loans | pending | — | Pending: Leaders’ Summit announcements from 11 Nov. Expected sources: UN News, Carbon Brief, presidency statements. | Not announced yet Antalya 2026 | awaiting data |
| Leaders’ Summit money: already promised | pending | — | Pending: Leaders’ Summit announcements from 11 Nov. Expected sources: UN News, Carbon Brief, presidency statements. | Not announced yet Antalya 2026 | awaiting data |
| Human-caused warming by 2024 | 1.36°C | — | Forster et al. (2025), Earth System Science Data: human-caused warming is estimated at 1.36 °C in 2024. | Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024 Belém 2025 | verified |
Who’s pushing what
each cell cites a verified source · 16 positions| BLOC | Money for poorer countries | Coping with impacts | Cutting emissions | Fairness for workers and communities | Getting off coal, oil and gas | The electrification pledge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G77 and China | G77 and China · Money for poorer countries G77 and China say the quality of climate finance matters, not only the amount, and want the goal to triple adaptation finance put into practice.Opening statement, 9 Nov: quality, not just quantity, of finance a core expectation; operationalise the goal to triple adaptation finance. “addressing the quality, not just the quantity, of finance is a core expectation, including through operationalizing the goal to triple adaptation finance” Antalya Climate Change Conference: Monday, 9 November 2026 (Vol. 12 No. 902, COP 31 #1) ↗verified | G77 and China · Coping with impacts G77 and China want the goal to triple adaptation finance put into practice.Opening statement, 9 Nov: operationalise the goal to triple adaptation finance. “addressing the quality, not just the quantity, of finance is a core expectation, including through operationalizing the goal to triple adaptation finance” Antalya Climate Change Conference: Monday, 9 November 2026 (Vol. 12 No. 902, COP 31 #1) ↗verified | · | G77 and China · Fairness for workers and communities G77 and China want the just transition work programme put into practice.Opening statement, 9 Nov: need to operationalise the just transition work programme. “the need to operationalize the just transition work programme” Antalya Climate Change Conference: Monday, 9 November 2026 (Vol. 12 No. 902, COP 31 #1) ↗verified | · | · |
| AOSIS | AOSIS · Money for poorer countries Small island states said climate finance is essential for acting on climate change.Opening statement, 9 Nov: climate finance indispensable for implementation. “climate finance is indispensable for implementation of climate action” Antalya Climate Change Conference: Monday, 9 November 2026 (Vol. 12 No. 902, COP 31 #1) ↗verified | · | AOSIS · Cutting emissions Small island states called for urgent delivery of the emissions-cutting commitments already made.Opening statement, 9 Nov: urgent implementation of mitigation commitments. “called for urgent implementation of mitigation commitments” Antalya Climate Change Conference: Monday, 9 November 2026 (Vol. 12 No. 902, COP 31 #1) ↗verified | · | · | · |
| LDCs | LDCs · Money for poorer countries The least developed countries want easier access to climate finance.Opening statement, 9 Nov: greater access to climate finance. “underscored the need for greater access to climate finance, tripling adaptation finance, advancing the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA)” Antalya Climate Change Conference: Monday, 9 November 2026 (Vol. 12 No. 902, COP 31 #1) ↗verified | LDCs · Coping with impacts The least developed countries want adaptation finance tripled and progress on the global adaptation goal.Opening statement, 9 Nov: tripling adaptation finance; advancing the Global Goal on Adaptation. “underscored the need for greater access to climate finance, tripling adaptation finance, advancing the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA)” Antalya Climate Change Conference: Monday, 9 November 2026 (Vol. 12 No. 902, COP 31 #1) ↗verified | · | LDCs · Fairness for workers and communities The least developed countries want the just transition mechanism put into practice.Opening statement, 9 Nov: operationalising the just transition mechanism. “operationalizing the just transition mechanism” Antalya Climate Change Conference: Monday, 9 November 2026 (Vol. 12 No. 902, COP 31 #1) ↗verified | · | · |
| African Group | · | African Group · Coping with impacts The African Group wants a starting point (baseline) set so that tripling adaptation finance by 2035 can be measured.Opening statement, 9 Nov: baseline to measure the target of tripling adaptation finance by 2035. “called for a baseline against which to measure the target of tripling adaptation finance by 2035” Antalya Climate Change Conference: Monday, 9 November 2026 (Vol. 12 No. 902, COP 31 #1) ↗verified | · | African Group · Fairness for workers and communities The African Group stressed the need for a just transition, and for adequate financing.Opening statement, 9 Nov: need for a just transition and adequate financing. ENB lists the two together without tying the financing to the just transition. “emphasized the need for a just transition and adequate financing” Antalya Climate Change Conference: Monday, 9 November 2026 (Vol. 12 No. 902, COP 31 #1) ↗verified | · | · |
| European Union | · | · | European Union · Cutting emissions The EU welcomed plans for a decision that tackles overshoot of 1.5°C and cuts methane.Opening statement, 9 Nov: welcomed a decision addressing 1.5°C overshoot and methane cuts. “welcomed plans to deliver a decision that will address 1.5°C overshoot, support clean electrification, cut methane emissions, and carry forward progress from existing roadmaps and Action Agendas” Antalya Climate Change Conference: Monday, 9 November 2026 (Vol. 12 No. 902, COP 31 #1) ↗verified | · | · | European Union · The electrification pledge The EU welcomed plans for a decision that supports clean electrification.Opening statement, 9 Nov: welcomed a decision supporting clean electrification. “welcomed plans to deliver a decision that will address 1.5°C overshoot, support clean electrification, cut methane emissions, and carry forward progress from existing roadmaps and Action Agendas” Antalya Climate Change Conference: Monday, 9 November 2026 (Vol. 12 No. 902, COP 31 #1) ↗verified |
| Umbrella Group | · | · | Umbrella Group · Cutting emissions The Umbrella Group wants an ambitious result from the mitigation work programme.Opening statement, 9 Nov: agree on ambitious outcomes for the mitigation work programme. “agree on ambitious outcomes for the mitigation work programme (MWP)” Antalya Climate Change Conference: Monday, 9 November 2026 (Vol. 12 No. 902, COP 31 #1) ↗verified | · | · | · |
| LMDC | · | LMDC · Coping with impacts The LMDC group regretted that an agenda item on tripling adaptation finance was rejected.Opening statement, 9 Nov: lamented rejection of the agenda item on tripling adaptation finance. “lamented the rejection of the agenda item on tripling adaptation finance” Antalya Climate Change Conference: Monday, 9 November 2026 (Vol. 12 No. 902, COP 31 #1) ↗verified | LMDC · Cutting emissions The LMDC group says deep cuts must come from developed countries, because of their historical responsibility.Opening statement, 9 Nov: deep mitigation by developed countries required in line with historical responsibility; frames overshoot action as differentiated. “to address overshoot, deep mitigation action by developed countries is required in line with their historical responsibility” Antalya Climate Change Conference: Monday, 9 November 2026 (Vol. 12 No. 902, COP 31 #1) ↗verified | · | · | · |
| Arab Group | · | · | · | · | Arab Group · Getting off coal, oil and gas The Arab Group opposed any mention of the COP 30 Presidency's roadmaps in a decision.Opening statement, 9 Nov: opposed references to the COP 30 Presidency roadmaps and the Action Agenda in any decision. The Presidency roadmaps cover fossil fuels and deforestation (ENB, same report). “opposed references to the COP 30 Presidency’s roadmaps and the Action Agenda in any decision” Antalya Climate Change Conference: Monday, 9 November 2026 (Vol. 12 No. 902, COP 31 #1) ↗verified | · |
New science during the summit
4 itemsData, methods, cite
open dataSOCA (2026). COP31 Tracker, data v0.1.0, updated 06:40 TRT, 10 Nov. https://soca.so/cop31/expert/