Critical Mineral Supply Chains Are Getting More Concentrated
The IEA’s 2026 outlook shows diversification losing ground. Excluding rare earths, the leading refining country’s share rose from 70% in 2023 to 72% in 2025. China has supplied more than 90% of global copper-smelting capacity growth since 2005, increasing its share of global capacity from about 15% to 50%. That concentration now carries a direct economic risk. Full disruption to rare-earth exports could put $6.5 trillion a year of downstream production outside China at risk. A full disruption to battery-grade graphite could put more than $300 billion at risk. Chinese mineral export controls have tripled since 2023. Building alternatives is expensive. Refining projects outside the dominant supplier cost 20% to more than 150% more to build, while copper-smelter fees fell to $0 per tonne in 2026. Critical-mineral investment fell 9% in 2025, including a 40% cut in lithium investment.The IEA’s 2026 outlook shows diversification losing ground. Excluding rare earths, the leading refining country’s share rose from 70% in 2023 to 72% in 2025. China has supplied more than 90% of global copper-smelting capacity growth since 2005, increasing its share of global capacity from about 15% to 50%. That concentration now carries a direct economic risk. Full disruption to rare-earth exports could put $6.5 trillion a year of downstream production outside China at risk. A full disruption to battery-grade graphite could put more than $300 billion at risk. Chinese mineral export controls have tripled since 2023. Building alternatives is expensive. Refining projects outside the dominant supplier cost 20% to more than 150% more to build, while copper-smelter fees fell to $0 per tonne in 2026. Critical-mineral investment fell 9% in 2025, including a 40% cut in lithium investment.Expert summary pending. Showing the newcomer version.